MeritValue

Uber Technologies, Inc

UBERdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Uber Technologies, Inc earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.23 and $56.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.5B1$31.9B2$37.3B3$44B3$52B3
Net income−$496M4−$9.14B5$1.89B6$9.86B6$10.1B6
Operating cash flow−$445M7$642M8$3.59B9$7.14B9$10.1B9
Capital expenditure$298M10$252M11$223M12$242M12$336M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$743M7$390M8$3.36B9$6.9B9$9.76B9
Total debt$18.7B13$18.7B14$19B15$19.1B16$21.1B16
Cash & equivalents$4.3B17$4.21B18$4.68B19$5.89B19$7.11B19
Diluted shares1.90B1.97B2.09B2.15B2.12B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$47.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$99.64

10 shares is a claim on $127.57 of net worth that earned you $47.43 and generated $46.06 of cash last year, against $99.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 -32%FY23 10%FY24 13%FY25 14%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.23 and $56.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$56.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.9B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.9B
Earnings Power Value
$9.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.89B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$39.86
Base5.0%$51.11
Bull10.0%$64.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001543151-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001543151-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001543151-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001543151-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001543151-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001543151-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001543151-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001543151-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001543151-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001543151-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001543151-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001543151-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001543151-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001543151-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001543151-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001543151-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001543151-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001543151-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001543151-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)