MeritValue

AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.

UAVSdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. earns about -97% on invested capital, and has bought back 67% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.76M1$19.1M2$13.7M3$13.4M4$12.8M4
Net income−$30.1M5−$58.3M6−$42.4M7−$35M8−$5.28M8
Operating cash flow−$12.5M9−$19.8M10−$11M11−$6.57M12−$9.96M12
Capital expenditure$525,31213$313,76914$215,35715$49,48516$74,65816
Free cash flow (derived)−$13M9−$20.1M10−$11.2M11−$6.62M12−$10M12
Total debt$2.07M17$1.34M18$4.99M19$374,12420$209,56320
Cash & equivalents$14.6M21$4.35M22$819,02423$3.61M23—
Diluted shares75.3M4.2M105,5921.1M25.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.11
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.08

10 shares is a claim on $14.26 of net worth that earned you −$2.11 and generated −$4 of cash last year, against $0.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-97% avg · 5y
FY21 -37%FY22 -114%FY23 -224%FY24 —FY25 -12%

It earned an average -97% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−67% shares · 5y

Share count is down 67% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 90% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004388 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-047969 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001563 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010682 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004388 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-047969 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001563 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010682 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004388 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-047969 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001563 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010682 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004388 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-047969 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001563 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010682 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004388 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-047969 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001563 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010682 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004388 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-047969 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001563 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)