MeritValue

CVR PARTNERS, LP

UANdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'stockholdersEquity'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $96.73 and $159.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$532.6M1$835.6M2$681.5M3$525.3M3$606M3
Net income$78.2M4$286.8M5$172.4M6$60.9M6$98.7M6
Operating cash flow$188.7M7$301.5M8$243.5M9$150.5M9$149.6M9
Capital expenditure$20.6M10$44.7M11$24.2M12$37.1M12$50.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$168.1M7$256.8M8$219.3M9$113.5M9$98.8M9
Total debt$610.6M13$546.8M14$547.3M14——
Cash & equivalents$112.5M15$86.3M16$45.3M17$90.9M18$69.2M18
Diluted shares10.7M10.6M10.6M10.6M10.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$93.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$93.51
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares of this business that earned you $93.34 and generated $93.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 10% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $96.73 and $159.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$148.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$113.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$159.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$113.5M
Earnings Power Value
$96.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$98.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $159.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$159.93
Base0.0%$159.93
Bull5.0%$197.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001425292-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001425292-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001425292-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001425292-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001425292-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001425292-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001425292-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001425292-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001425292-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001425292-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001425292-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001425292-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001425292-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001425292-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001425292-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001425292-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001425292-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001425292-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)