MeritValue

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

UALdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $82.59 and $103.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.6B1$45B2$53.7B3$57.1B3$59.1B3
Net income−$1.96B4$737M5$2.62B6$3.15B6$3.35B6
Operating cash flow$2.07B7$6.07B8$6.91B9$9.45B9$8.43B9
Capital expenditure$2.11B10$4.82B11$7.17B12$5.62B12$5.87B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$40M7$1.25B8−$260M9$3.83B9$2.56B9
Total debt$33.4B13$31.2B14$29.1B15$24.7B16$21.3B16
Cash & equivalents$18.3B17$7.17B18$6.06B19$8.77B19$5.94B19
Diluted shares321.9M330.1M331.9M333.2M328.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$465.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$102.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$647.37

10 shares is a claim on $465.21 of net worth that earned you $102.07 and generated $77.84 of cash last year, against $647.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -10%FY22 2%FY23 8%FY24 11%FY25 11%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 36% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $82.59 and $103.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$103.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.56B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$91.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.56B
Earnings Power Value
$82.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.62B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$103.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $91.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$64.57
Base5.0%$91.48
Bull10.0%$123.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000100517-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100517-25-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100517-26-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000100517-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100517-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100517-26-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000100517-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100517-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100517-26-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000100517-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100517-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100517-26-000023 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000100517-23-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100517-24-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100517-25-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000100517-26-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000100517-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000100517-25-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000100517-26-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)