MeritValue

TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC

TYLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TYLER TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.24 and $831.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.59B1$1.85B2$1.95B3$2.14B3$2.33B3
Net income$161.5M4$164.2M5$165.9M6$263M6$315.6M6
Operating cash flow$371.8M7$381.5M8$380.4M9$624.6M9$653.5M9
Capital expenditure$33.9M10$22.5M11$20.5M12$20.5M12$16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$337.8M7$358.9M8$359.9M9$604.1M9$637.5M9
Total debt$2.68B13$1.97B14$1.29B15$1.2B15$599.7M16
Cash & equivalents$309.2M17$173.9M18$165.5M19$744.7M20$1.02B20
Diluted shares42.2M42.4M42.8M43.5M43.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$845.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$145.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$136.87

10 shares is a claim on $845.15 of net worth that earned you $72.04 and generated $145.51 of cash last year, against $136.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 4%FY24 7%FY25 10%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 78% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.24 and $831.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$831.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$604.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$459.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$604.1M
Earnings Power Value
$39.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$165.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$117.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $459.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$206.49
Base20.0%$459.04
Bull20.0%$459.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860731-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860731-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860731-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860731-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860731-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860731-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860731-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860731-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860731-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860731-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860731-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860731-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860731-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860731-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860731-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000860731-26-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860731-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860731-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860731-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000860731-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)