MeritValue

TEXTRON INC

TXTdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TEXTRON INC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.5 and $79.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$12.4B1$12.9B2$13.7B3$13.7B3$14.8B3
Net income$746M4$861M5$921M6$824M6$921M6
Operating cash flow$1.6B7$1.49B8$1.27B9$1.01B9$1.31B9
Capital expenditure$375M10$354M11$402M12$364M12$383M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.22B7$1.13B8$864M9$650M9$929M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.12B13$2.04B14$2.18B14$1.44B14$2.03B14
Diluted shares226.5M215.0M201.8M190.3M180.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$436.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$51.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.54
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $436.87 of net worth that earned you $51.09 and generated $51.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY22 18%FY22 15%FY23 18%FY24 13%FY26 14%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.5 and $79.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$74.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$864M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$79.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$864M
Earnings Power Value
$49.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$861M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$70.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $79.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$79.72
Base0.0%$79.72
Bull5.0%$96.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000217346-24-000017 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217346-25-000017 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000217346-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000217346-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217346-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000217346-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000217346-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217346-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000217346-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000217346-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217346-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000217346-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000217346-25-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000217346-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)