MeritValue

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

TXRHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $48.87 and $134.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.46B1$4.01B2$4.63B3$5.37B3$5.88B3
Net income$245.3M4$269.8M4$313.7M5$444.3M5$414.3M5
Operating cash flow$468.8M6$511.7M7$565M8$753.6M8$730.1M8
Capital expenditure$200.7M9$246.1M10$347M11$354.3M11$388M11
Free cash flow (derived)$268.1M6$265.6M7$218M8$399.3M8$342.1M8
Total debt$100M12$50M13$013——
Cash & equivalents$335.6M14$173.9M15$104.2M16$245.2M17$134.7M17
Diluted shares70.1M67.9M67.1M67.0M66.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$219.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $219.64 of net worth that earned you $62.3 and generated $51.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 31%FY22 31%FY23 30%FY24 40%FY25 31%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $48.87 and $134.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$134.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.8%
  • fcfBase$342.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$109.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.8%
  • fcfBase$342.1M
Earnings Power Value
$48.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$313.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $109.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$75.51
Base8.8%$109.12
Bull13.8%$133.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001558370-24-001595 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-27 · accession 0001558370-25-001904 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-26 · accession 0001104659-26-021292 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001558370-23-001979 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-26 · accession 0001104659-26-021292 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001558370-24-001595 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-27 · accession 0001558370-25-001904 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-26 · accession 0001104659-26-021292 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001558370-24-001595 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-27 · accession 0001558370-25-001904 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-26 · accession 0001104659-26-021292 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001558370-23-001979 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-27 · accession 0001558370-24-001595 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-28 · accession 0001558370-23-001979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-27 · accession 0001558370-24-001595 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-26 · accession 0001558370-25-001904 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021292 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)