MeritValue

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC

TXNdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC earns about 21% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $73.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.3B1$20B2$17.5B3$15.6B3$17.7B3
Net income$7.77B4$8.75B5$6.51B6$4.8B6$5B6
Operating cash flow$8.76B7$8.72B8$6.42B9$6.32B9$7.15B9
Capital expenditure$2.46B10$2.8B11$5.07B12$4.82B12$4.55B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.29B7$5.92B8$1.35B9$1.5B9$2.6B9
Total debt$15.5B13$17.5B14$22.4B15$27.2B16$28.1B16
Cash & equivalents$4.63B17$3.05B18$2.96B19$3.2B20$3.23B20
Diluted shares936.0M926.0M916.0M919.0M913.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$178.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$307.73

10 shares is a claim on $178.24 of net worth that earned you $54.78 and generated $28.51 of cash last year, against $307.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 30%FY23 18%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned an average 21% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 81% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
Earnings Power Value
$73.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.51B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097476-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097476-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097476-26-000059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097476-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097476-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097476-26-000059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097476-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097476-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097476-26-000059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097476-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097476-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097476-26-000059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097476-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097476-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097476-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097476-26-000059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097476-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097476-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097476-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097476-26-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)