MeritValue

TherapeuticsMD, Inc.

TXMDdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TherapeuticsMD, Inc. earns about -13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.57M1$70M1$1.3M2$1.76M3$3.02M3
Net income−$172.4M4$112M5−$10.3M6−$2.18M7−$569,0007
Operating cash flow−$142.7M8$9.36M9−$23.1M10$1.17M11$2.45M11
Capital expenditure$34,00012————
Free cash flow (derived)−$142.7M8————
Total debt$376.5M13————
Cash & equivalents$64.9M14$49.3M15$4.33M16$5.06M16$7.48M17
Diluted shares8.0M9.4M10,44111.5M11.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$23.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.49
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $23.23 of net worth that earned you −$0.49 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 —FY23 -24%FY24 -8%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005514 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003442 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037918 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005514 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003442 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037918 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-011525 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003442 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037918 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005514 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005514 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003442 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-003442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037918 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)