MeritValue

10x Genomics, Inc.

TXGdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

10x Genomics, Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$490.5M1$516.4M2$618.7M3$610.8M3$642.8M3
Net income−$58.2M4−$166M5−$255.1M6−$182.6M6−$43.5M6
Operating cash flow−$21.4M7−$33.6M8−$15.2M9$6.66M9$136.1M9
Capital expenditure$101.3M10$131.7M11$48.6M12$12.4M12$5.94M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$122.7M7−$165.3M8−$63.8M9−$5.73M9$130.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$587.4M13$219.7M14$359.3M14$344.1M14$474M15
Diluted shares110.3M113.9M117.2M120.5M124.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $63.83 of net worth that earned you −$3.49 and generated $10.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 -18%FY22 -22%FY23 -51%FY24 -38%FY25 -10%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770787-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770787-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007822 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770787-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770787-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007822 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770787-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770787-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007822 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770787-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770787-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007822 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001770787-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001770787-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007822 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)