MeritValue

TWILIO INC

TWLOdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

TWILIO INC earns about -5% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.84B1$3.83B2$4.15B3$4.46B3$5.07B3
Net income−$949.9M4−$1.26B5−$1.02B6−$109.4M6$33.8M6
Operating cash flow−$58.2M7−$254.4M8$414.8M9$716.2M9$1B9
Capital expenditure$46M10————
Free cash flow (derived)−$104.2M7————
Total debt$985.9M11$987.4M12$989M13$990.6M14$992.3M14
Cash & equivalents$1.48B15$651.8M16$655.9M17$421.3M17$682.3M17
Diluted shares174.2M183.0M183.3M165.9M159.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$489.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.12
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$62.1

10 shares is a claim on $489.49 of net worth that earned you $2.12 last year, against $62.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -9%FY23 -8%FY24 -1%FY25 0%

It earned an average -5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$15.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447669-24-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447669-25-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447669-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447669-24-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447669-25-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447669-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447669-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447669-25-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447669-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447669-22-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447669-23-000049 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447669-24-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447669-25-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447669-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447669-24-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447669-25-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447669-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)