MeritValue

TWIN DISC INC

TWINdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'

The thesis, from the filings

TWIN DISC INC earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.76 and $16.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$218.6M1$242.9M2$277M3$295.1M4$340.7M4
Net income−$29.7M5$10.5M6$10.4M7$11M8−$1.89M8
Operating cash flow$6.53M9−$8.31M10$22.9M11$33.7M12$24M12
Capital expenditure$4.46M13$4.73M14$7.92M15$8.71M16$15.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.06M9−$13M10$15M11$25M12$8.82M12
Total debt$64.2M17$73.1M18$37.3M19$51.6M20$62.9M20
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares13.2M13.4M13.8M13.9M13.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$118.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$45.39

10 shares is a claim on $118.37 of net worth that earned you −$1.37 and generated $6.37 of cash last year, against $45.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 0%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.76 and $16.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$15M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$15M
Earnings Power Value
$7.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.91
Base5.0%$14.65
Bull10.0%$19.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001437749-22-022023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)