MeritValue

TWIN DISC INC

TWINdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

TWIN DISC INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.34 and $32.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$242.9M1$277M2$295.1M3$340.7M4$381.3M4
Net income$10.5M5$10.4M6$11M7−$697,0008$27.1M8
Operating cash flow−$8.31M9$22.9M10$33.7M11$24M12$22.9M12
Capital expenditure$4.73M13$7.92M14$8.71M15$15.2M16$13.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$13M9$15M10$25M11$8.82M12$9.19M12
Total debt$73.1M17$37.3M18$51.6M19$62.9M20$59.6M20
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares13.4M13.8M13.9M13.9M14.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$150.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.87

10 shares is a claim on $150.59 of net worth that earned you $18.56 and generated $6.3 of cash last year, against $40.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 1%FY26 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.34 and $32.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$9.19M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$9.19M
Earnings Power Value
$7.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.74
Base20.0%$16.03
Bull20.0%$16.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029700 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029700 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029700 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029700 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001437749-23-025446 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-028638 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-028487 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-26-029700 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)