MeritValue

TITAN INTERNATIONAL INC

TWIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TITAN INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.06 and $64.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.78B1$2.17B2$1.82B3$1.85B3$1.83B3
Net income$49.6M4$176.3M5$78.8M6−$5.56M6−$63.5M6
Operating cash flow$10.7M7$160.7M8$179.4M9$141.5M9$30M9
Capital expenditure$38.8M10$47M11$60.8M12$65.6M12$54.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.1M7$113.7M8$118.6M9$75.9M9−$24.6M9
Total debt$485M13$445.6M14$426.1M14$568.3M15$587.9M16
Cash & equivalents$98.1M17—$220.3M18$196M19$202.9M19
Diluted shares62.7M63.7M63.0M68.7M63.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.97
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$92.27

10 shares is a claim on $80.73 of net worth that earned you −$9.97 and generated −$3.86 of cash last year, against $92.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 25%FY23 15%FY24 0%FY25 -1%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.06 and $64.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$64.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$75.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$75.9M
Earnings Power Value
$8.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.97
Base20.0%$32.78
Bull20.0%$32.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899751-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899751-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899751-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899751-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899751-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899751-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899751-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899751-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899751-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899751-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899751-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899751-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899751-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899751-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000899751-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000899751-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899751-22-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899751-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000899751-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)