TWFG, Inc.
TWFGdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileTWFG, Inc. earns about 18% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.94 and $157.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $153.9M1 | $172M2 | $203.8M2 | $248.5M2 |
| Net income | $03 | $04 | $2.75M4 | $41.2M5 |
| Operating cash flow | $25.8M6 | $30.2M7 | $40.5M7 | $53.5M7 |
| Capital expenditure | $115,0008 | $260,0009 | $3.2M9 | $356,0009 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $25.6M6 | $29.9M7 | $37.3M7 | $53.1M7 |
| Total debt | — | $53.2M10 | $15.5M11 | $4.01M11 |
| Cash & equivalents | $22.3M12 | $39.3M13 | $195.8M13 | $155.9M13 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | 15.0M | 15.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $55.22 of net worth that earned you $27.26 and generated $35.19 of cash last year, against $2.65 of debt.
It earned about 18% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 92% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.94 and $157.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$37.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$37.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.37M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $45.33 |
| Base | 20.0% | $90.55 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $90.55 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015138 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015138 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015138 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015138 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015138 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016162 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)