MeritValue

Tradeweb Markets Inc.

TWdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Tradeweb Markets Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.59 and $175.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.08B1$1.19B2$1.34B3$1.73B3$2.05B3
Net income$226.8M4$309.3M5$364.9M6$501.5M6$812.8M6
Operating cash flow$578M7$632.8M8$746.1M9$897.7M9$1.17B9
Capital expenditure$16.9M10$23.2M11$18.5M12$41M12$40.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$561.1M7$609.6M8$727.6M9$856.8M9$1.13B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$972M13$1.26B14$1.71B15$1.34B15$2.08B15
Diluted shares207.3M208.4M212.7M214.9M214.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$302.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $302.83 of net worth that earned you $37.82 and generated $52.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 10%FY23 13%FY24 13%FY25 21%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.59 and $175.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$175.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.2%
  • fcfBase$856.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$117.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.2%
  • fcfBase$856.8M
Earnings Power Value
$17.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$364.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $117.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.67
Base15.2%$117.2
Bull20.0%$139.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758730-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758730-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758730-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758730-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758730-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758730-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758730-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758730-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758730-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758730-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758730-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758730-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001758730-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001758730-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001758730-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)