Tuya Inc.
TUYAdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Tuya Inc. earns about -14% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.59 and $3.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $302.1M1 | $208.2M2 | $230M3 | $298.6M3 | $321.8M3 |
| Net income | −$175.4M4 | −$146.2M5 | −$60.3M6 | $5M6 | $57.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$126.1M7 | −$70.7M8 | $36.4M9 | $80.4M9 | $81M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.19M10 | $710,00011 | $1.5M12 | $4.18M12 | $7.14M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$132.3M7 | −$71.4M8 | $34.9M9 | $76.2M9 | $73.9M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $963.9M13 | $133.2M14 | $498.7M15 | $653.3M15 | $890.7M15 |
| Diluted shares | 489.1M | 553.5M | 555.5M | 591.0M | 613.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $16.66 of net worth that earned you $0.94 and generated $1.2 of cash last year.
It earned about -14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.59 and $3.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$73.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$73.9M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.17 |
| Base | 5.0% | $3.59 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $4.09 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050855 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000850 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046399 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050855 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000850 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046399 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050855 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000850 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046399 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050855 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000850 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046399 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-050855 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000850 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046399 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)