MeritValue

MAMMOTH ENERGY SERVICES, INC.

TUSKdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MAMMOTH ENERGY SERVICES, INC. earns about -24% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.21 and $16.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$229M1$362.1M2$309.5M2$45.6M3$44.3M3
Net income−$101.4M4−$619,0005−$3.16M5−$207.3M6$4.6M6
Operating cash flow−$18.9M7$15.3M8$31.4M8$180.7M9−$18.6M9
Capital expenditure$5.84M10$12.7M11$19.4M11$1.21M12$70.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$24.7M7$2.53M8$12M8$179.5M9−$89.1M9
Total debt$173.4M13$167M14$85.6M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$9.9M16$17.3M17$16.6M18$60.8M19$102M19
Diluted shares46.4M47.2M47.8M48.1M48.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.95
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.46
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $53.5 of net worth that earned you $0.95 and generated −$18.46 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-24% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 2%FY23 1%FY24 -80%FY25 -30%

It earned about -24% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.21 and $16.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.66
Base20.0%$10.21
Bull20.0%$10.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679268-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679268-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015693 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679268-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679268-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015693 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679268-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679268-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015693 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679268-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679268-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015693 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679268-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679268-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679268-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679268-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679268-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679268-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015693 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)