MeritValue

TILE SHOP HOLDINGS, INC.

TTSHdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TILE SHOP HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.39 and $3.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$370.7M1$394.7M2$377.1M3$347.1M3$336.8M3
Net income$14.8M4$15.7M5$10.1M6$2.32M6−$4.49M6
Operating cash flow$39.7M7$2.72M8$62.1M9$27.1M9$5.79M9
Capital expenditure$11.1M10$14M11$15.3M12$14.5M12$9.56M12
Free cash flow (derived)$28.6M7−$11.3M8$46.7M9$12.6M9−$3.77M9
Total debt$10M13$90.8M14——$50M15
Cash & equivalents$9.36M16$5.95M17$8.62M17$21M18$10.1M18
Diluted shares51.1M49.2M43.6M43.9M43.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.03
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.86
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.44

10 shares is a claim on $19.96 of net worth that earned you −$1.03 and generated −$0.86 of cash last year, against $11.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 2%FY25 -4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 400% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.39 and $3.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.6M
Earnings Power Value
$2.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.2
Base0.0%$3.2
Bull5.0%$4.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552800-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552800-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552800-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552800-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552800-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552800-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552800-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552800-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552800-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552800-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552800-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552800-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552800-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552800-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001552800-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552800-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552800-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001552800-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)