MeritValue

TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC

TTMIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.25B1$2.5B2$2.23B3$2.44B3$2.91B3
Net income$54.4M4$94.6M5−$18.7M6$56.3M6$177.4M6
Operating cash flow$176.6M7$272.9M8$187.3M9$236.9M9$291.9M9
Capital expenditure$82M10$102.9M11$160.2M12$185.7M12$292.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$94.7M7$170M8$27M9$51.2M9−$683,0009
Total debt$927.8M13$879.4M14$917.8M15$1.84B16$1.83B16
Cash & equivalents$537.7M17$402.7M18$450.2M19$503.9M20$501.2M20
Diluted shares108.2M103.9M102.7M104.1M105.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$167.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.83
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$173.76

10 shares is a claim on $167.11 of net worth that earned you $16.83 and generated −$0.06 of cash last year, against $173.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 1%FY24 2%FY25 6%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 97% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$27M
Earnings Power Value
$5.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-03 · accession 0000950170-24-021098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-024839 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-01 · accession 0001193125-26-051976 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-03 · accession 0000950170-24-021098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-024839 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-01 · accession 0001193125-26-051976 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-03 · accession 0000950170-24-021098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-024839 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-01 · accession 0001193125-26-051976 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-03 · accession 0000950170-24-021098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-024839 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-01 · accession 0001193125-26-051976 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-03 · accession 0000950170-23-005994 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-02 · accession 0000950170-24-021098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-01 · accession 0000950170-25-024839 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-051976 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-03 · accession 0000950170-23-005994 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-02 · accession 0000950170-24-021098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-01 · accession 0000950170-25-024839 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-051976 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)