MeritValue

TETRA TECH INC

TTEKdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TETRA TECH INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 389% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.21 and $22.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.21B1$3.5B2$4.52B3$5.2B3$5.44B3
Net income$232.8M4$263.2M5$273.5M6$333.4M6$247.9M6
Operating cash flow$304.4M7$336.2M8$368.5M9$358.7M9$457.7M9
Capital expenditure$8.57M10$10.6M11$26.9M12$18.1M12$18.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$295.8M7$325.6M8$341.6M9$340.6M9$439.1M9
Total debt$437.5M13$530M14$1.76B14$1.63B15$763.4M15
Cash & equivalents$166.6M16$185.1M17$168.8M18$232.7M19$167.5M19
Diluted shares54.7M270.8M268.2M270.0M267.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$66.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.58

10 shares is a claim on $66.63 of net worth that earned you $9.28 and generated $16.44 of cash last year, against $28.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 18%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+389% shares · 5y

Share count is up 389% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 74% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.21 and $22.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$22.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.9%
  • fcfBase$341.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.9%
  • fcfBase$341.6M
Earnings Power Value
$10.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$263.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.04
Base4.9%$20.38
Bull9.9%$25.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000831641-23-000082 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000831641-24-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000831641-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000831641-23-000082 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000831641-24-000063 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000831641-25-000032 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000831641-23-000082 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000831641-24-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000831641-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000831641-23-000082 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000831641-24-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000831641-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000831641-22-000123 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000831641-23-000082 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0000831641-25-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-03 · accession 0000831641-22-000123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-02 · accession 0000831641-23-000082 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-01 · accession 0000831641-24-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0000831641-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)