MeritValue

TotalEnergies SE

TTEdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

TotalEnergies SE earns about 15% on equity, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $75.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$205.9B1$281B2$237.1B3$214.6B3$201.2B3
Net income$16B4$20.5B5$21.4B6$15.8B6$13.1B6
Operating cash flow$30.4B7$47.4B8$40.7B9$30.9B9$27.3B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$21.3B10$33B11$27.3B11$25.8B11$26.2B11
Diluted shares2.64B2.62B2.41B2.40B2.21B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$520.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.49
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $520.64 of net worth that earned you $59.49 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
15% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 18%FY23 18%FY24 13%FY25 11%

It earned an average 15% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$75.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$16B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040994 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029751 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035876 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040994 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029751 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035876 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040994 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029751 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035876 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-029751 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035876 (CashAndCashEquivalents)