Trade Desk, Inc.
TTDdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Trade Desk, Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.76 and $78.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B1 | $1.58B2 | $1.95B3 | $2.44B3 | $2.9B3 |
| Net income | $137.8M4 | $53.4M5 | $178.9M6 | $393.1M6 | $443.3M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $378.5M7 | $548.7M8 | $598.3M9 | $739.5M9 | $992.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $54.8M10 | $84.2M11 | $46.8M12 | $98.2M12 | $197M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $323.7M7 | $464.6M8 | $551.5M9 | $641.2M9 | $795.7M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $754.2M13 | $1.03B14 | $895.1M15 | $1.37B16 | $658.2M16 |
| Diluted shares | 498.5M | 499.9M | 500.2M | 501.9M | 493.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $50.34 of net worth that earned you $8.98 and generated $16.12 of cash last year.
It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.76 and $78.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$641.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$641.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$178.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.9 |
| Base | 20.0% | $43.69 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $43.69 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001671933-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001671933-25-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001671933-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001671933-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001671933-25-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001671933-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001671933-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001671933-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001671933-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001671933-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001671933-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001671933-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001671933-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001671933-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001671933-25-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001671933-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)