ServiceTitan, Inc.

TTANdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ServiceTitan, Inc. earns about -13% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 204% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.03 and $11.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$467.7M1$614.3M2$771.9M2$961M2
Net income−$269.5M3−$195.1M4−$239.1M4−$159.9M4
Operating cash flow−$120.7M5−$39.7M6$37.1M6$110.1M6
Capital expenditure$74M7$28.4M8$3.8M8$4.7M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$194.7M5−$68.1M6$33.3M6$105.4M6
Total debt$352.8M9$210.2M9$010
Cash & equivalents$202.5M11$146.7M12$441.8M12$428.8M12
Diluted shares30.4M33.3M42.1M92.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$165.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $165.11 of net worth that earned you −$17.3 and generated $11.41 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 4y
FY23 FY24 FY25 -15%FY26 -11%

It earned about -13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+204% shares · 4y

Share count is up 204% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.03 and $11.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$33.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$33.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.78
Base5.0%$11.03
Bull10.0%$12.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)