ServiceTitan, Inc.
TTANdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
ServiceTitan, Inc. earns about -13% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 204% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.03 and $11.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $467.7M1 | $614.3M2 | $771.9M2 | $961M2 |
| Net income | −$269.5M3 | −$195.1M4 | −$239.1M4 | −$159.9M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$120.7M5 | −$39.7M6 | $37.1M6 | $110.1M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $74M7 | $28.4M8 | $3.8M8 | $4.7M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$194.7M5 | −$68.1M6 | $33.3M6 | $105.4M6 |
| Total debt | — | $352.8M9 | $210.2M9 | $010 |
| Cash & equivalents | $202.5M11 | $146.7M12 | $441.8M12 | $428.8M12 |
| Diluted shares | 30.4M | 33.3M | 42.1M | 92.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $165.11 of net worth that earned you −$17.3 and generated $11.41 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.
It earned about -13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 204% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.03 and $11.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$33.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$33.3M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $9.78 |
| Base | 5.0% | $11.03 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $12.52 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2026-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-048834 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001638826-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)