Titan America SA

TTAMdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Titan America SA earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.03 and $10.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.36B1$1.59B2$1.63B2$1.66B2
Net income$62.7M3$155.2M4$166.1M4$185.4M4
Operating cash flow$178.4M5$227.1M6$248M6$295.4M6
Capital expenditure$125.4M7$117.1M8$135.4M8$160.5M8
Free cash flow (derived)$53M5$110M6$112.6M6$134.9M6
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$29.8M9$22M9$12.1M9$211.8M9
Diluted shares175.4M175.4M175.4M184.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.32
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $56.09 of net worth that earned you $10.06 and generated $7.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 4y
FY22 11%FY23 22%FY24 23%FY25 23%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 4y

Share count is up 5% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.03 and $10.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.4%
  • fcfBase$112.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.4%
  • fcfBase$112.6M
Earnings Power Value
$9.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$160.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.88
Base2.4%$10.84
Bull7.4%$13.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002035304-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035304-26-000047 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002035304-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035304-26-000047 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002035304-25-000006 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035304-26-000047 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002035304-25-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002035304-26-000047 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002035304-26-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalents)