MeritValue

Trane Technologies plc

TTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Trane Technologies plc earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.26 and $702.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.1B1$16B2$17.7B3$19.8B3$21.3B3
Net income$1.42B4$1.76B5$2.02B6$2.57B6$2.92B6
Operating cash flow$1.59B7$1.5B8$2.39B9$3.15B9$3.19B9
Capital expenditure$223M10$291.8M11$300.7M11$370.6M11$383M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.37B7$1.21B8$2.09B9$2.78B9$2.81B9
Total debt$9.68B13$9.67B14$9.56B15$9.54B16$9.23B16
Cash & equivalents$2.16B17$1.22B18$1.1B19$1.59B20$1.76B20
Diluted shares242.3M234.9M230.7M228.4M224.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$381.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$129.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$125.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$410.41

10 shares is a claim on $381.47 of net worth that earned you $129.77 and generated $125.01 of cash last year, against $410.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 14%FY23 15%FY24 18%FY25 20%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.26 and $702.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$702.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.78B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$369.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.78B
Earnings Power Value
$93.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.02B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$105.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $369.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$143.09
Base20.0%$369.09
Bull20.0%$369.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466258-24-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466258-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005731 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466258-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466258-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005731 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466258-24-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466258-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005731 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466258-24-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466258-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005731 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466258-23-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466258-24-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466258-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005731 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001466258-23-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001466258-24-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001466258-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005731 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)