MeritValue

TSS, Inc.

TSSIdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TSS, Inc. earns about 9% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 48% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.03 and $3.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.4M1$30.6M2$54.4M3$148.1M3$245.7M3
Net income−$1.3M4−$73,0005$74,0006$5.98M6$15.1M6
Operating cash flow−$10.5M7$14.7M8−$8.27M9$15.3M9$34.9M9
Capital expenditure$64,00010$536,00011$257,00012$8.48M12$32.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.5M7$14.2M8−$8.53M9$6.81M9$2.12M9
Total debt$4.05M13$013$014$8.2M15$18M15
Cash & equivalents$7.99M16$20.4M17$11.8M17$23.2M18$85.5M18
Diluted shares18.4M20.1M22.0M25.1M27.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.78
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.62

10 shares is a claim on $28.15 of net worth that earned you $5.56 and generated $0.78 of cash last year, against $6.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 -59%FY22 -2%FY23 2%FY24 84%FY25 20%

It earned about 9% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+48% shares · 5y

Share count is up 48% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 345% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.03 and $3.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.12M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.12M
Earnings Power Value
$0.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$74,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.59
Base0.0%$3.59
Bull5.0%$3.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008857 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009879 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002342 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008857 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009879 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002342 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008857 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009879 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002342 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008857 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009879 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002342 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008857 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-004295 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002342 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008857 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-002342 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)