MeritValue

TuSimple Holdings Inc.

TSPHdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

TuSimple Holdings Inc. earns about -52% on equity, but has diluted owners by 282% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022
Revenue$710,0001$1.84M2$6.26M2$9.37M2
Net income−$84.8M3−$177.9M4−$732.7M4−$472M4
Operating cash flow−$76.3M5−$103.8M6−$259M6−$329.9M6
Capital expenditure$10.3M7$4.3M8$13.3M8$13.6M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$86.7M5−$108.2M6−$272.4M6−$343.5M6
Total debt—$6.43M9$7.07M10$5.31M10
Cash & equivalents$63.6M11$310.8M12$1.34B12$615.4M12
Diluted shares58.7M58.9M169.1M224.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.06
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.24

10 shares is a claim on $42.58 of net worth that earned you −$21.06 and generated −$15.32 of cash last year, against $0.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-52% avg · 4y
FY19 —FY20 —FY21 -55%FY22 -49%

It earned an average -52% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+282% shares · 4y

Share count is up 282% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003549 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-031648 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003549 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-031648 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003549 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-031648 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003549 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-031648 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003549 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-031648 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003549 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-031648 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)