MeritValue

TerrAscend Corp.

TSNDFdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TerrAscend Corp. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 44% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.71 and $0.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$194.2M1$247.8M2$250.5M3$268.1M3$260.6M3
Net income$6.14M4−$325.4M5−$86.7M6−$72.7M6−$81.3M6
Operating cash flow−$31.8M7−$26.1M8$27.5M9$38M9$21.5M9
Capital expenditure$39.8M10$39.6M11$4.87M12$6.87M12$8.61M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$71.7M7−$65.8M8$22.6M9$31.1M9$12.9M9
Total debt—$248.3M13$344.2M13$204.5M14$225.5M14
Cash & equivalents$79.6M15$26.2M16$22.2M17$26.4M18$37.4M18
Diluted shares208.7M244.4M279.3M291.5M301.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.49

10 shares is a claim on $3.29 of net worth that earned you −$2.7 and generated $0.43 of cash last year, against $7.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 -41%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+44% shares · 5y

Share count is up 44% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.71 and $0.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$22.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$22.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.45
Base5.0%$0.71
Bull10.0%$1.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031450 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034600 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031450 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034600 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031450 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034600 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031450 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034600 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031450 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104092 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008501 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031450 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034600 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-104092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)