MeritValue

TYSON FOODS, INC.

TSNdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

TYSON FOODS, INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.22 and $48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$47B1$53.3B2$52.9B3$53.3B3$54.4B3
Net income$3.05B4$3.24B5−$648M6$800M6$474M6
Operating cash flow$3.84B7$2.69B8$1.75B9$2.59B9$2.16B9
Capital expenditure$1.21B10$1.89B11$1.94B12$1.13B12$978M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.63B7$800M8−$187M9$1.46B9$1.18B9
Total debt$1.07B13$459M14$1.9B15$74M16$909M16
Cash & equivalents$2.51B17$1.03B18$573M19$1.72B19$1.23B19
Diluted shares365.0M363.0M284.0M356.0M357.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$506.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.46

10 shares is a claim on $506.58 of net worth that earned you $13.28 and generated $32.97 of cash last year, against $25.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 17%FY23 -3%FY24 5%FY25 3%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.22 and $48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.18B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.18B
Earnings Power Value
$23.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$800M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48
Base0.0%$48
Bull5.0%$59.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000100493-23-000105 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000100493-24-000119 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000100493-25-000095 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000100493-23-000105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000100493-24-000119 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000100493-25-000095 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000100493-23-000105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000100493-24-000119 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000100493-25-000095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000100493-23-000105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000100493-24-000119 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000100493-25-000095 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000100493-22-000097 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000100493-23-000105 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000100493-24-000119 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000100493-25-000095 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000100493-23-000105 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000100493-24-000119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000100493-25-000095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)