TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD
TSMdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD earns about 51% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.12 and $42.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.7B1 | $57.2B2 | $73.7B3 | $70.6B4 | $88.3B5 |
| Net income | $18.2B6 | $21.4B7 | $32.3B8 | $27.8B9 | $35.3B10 |
| Operating cash flow | $29.3B11 | $40.1B12 | $52.4B13 | $40.6B14 | $55.7B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $18.1B16 | $30.3B17 | $35.2B18 | $31B19 | $29.2B20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $11.2B11 | $9.84B12 | $17.2B13 | $9.54B14 | $26.5B15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $23.8B21 | $34.7B22 | $43.9B23 | $44.7B24 | $64.9B24 |
| Diluted shares | 25.93B | 25.93B | 25.93B | 25.93B | 25.93B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $49.91 of net worth that earned you $13.62 and generated $10.23 of cash last year.
It earned about 51% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.12 and $42.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$17.2B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$17.2B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$27.8B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $11.97 |
| Base | 20.0% | $24.1 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $24.1 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118512 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-104891 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-107214 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-099840 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-083423 (Revenue)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-104891 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-107214 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-099840 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-083423 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118512 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-104891 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-107214 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-099840 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
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- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-118512 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-104891 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-107214 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-099840 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-083423 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-104891 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-107214 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-099840 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-083423 (CashAndCashEquivalents)