MeritValue

Tesla, Inc.

TSLAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Tesla, Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.69 and $20.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$53.8B1$81.5B2$96.8B3$97.7B3$94.8B3
Net income$5.52B4$12.6B5$15B6$7.09B6$3.79B6
Operating cash flow$11.5B7$14.7B8$13.3B9$14.9B9$14.7B9
Capital expenditure$6.48B10$7.16B11$8.9B12$11.3B12$8.53B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.02B7$7.57B8$4.36B9$3.58B9$6.22B9
Total debt$5.34B13$2.05B14$4.66B15$7.88B16$8.15B16
Cash & equivalents$17.6B17$16.3B18$16.4B19$16.1B19$16.5B19
Diluted shares3.39B3.48B3.48B3.50B3.53B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$232.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$23.11

10 shares is a claim on $232.81 of net worth that earned you $10.75 and generated $17.63 of cash last year, against $23.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 42%FY23 20%FY24 11%FY25 5%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.69 and $20.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.36B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$20.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.36B
Earnings Power Value
$20.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.09B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $20.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.01
Base0.0%$20.01
Bull5.0%$24.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-002390 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003952 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-002390 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003952 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-002390 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003952 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-002390 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003952 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-001409 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-002390 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003063 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003952 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-002390 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-003952 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)