MeritValue

Trinseo PLC

TSEOQdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Trinseo PLC earns about -6% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.83B1$4.97B2$3.68B3$3.51B3$2.97B3
Net income$440M4−$430.9M5−$701.3M6−$348.5M6−$545.6M6
Operating cash flow$452.7M7$43.5M8$148.7M9−$14.2M9−$102.4M9
Capital expenditure$117.7M10$148.2M11$69.7M12$63.3M12$51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$335M7−$104.7M8$79M9−$77.5M9−$153.4M9
Total debt$4.65B13$4.64B14$4.6B15$4.82B16$5.09B16
Cash & equivalents$573M17$211.7M18$259.1M19$209.8M19$146.7M19
Diluted shares39.6M35.9M35.3M35.3M35.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$306.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$152.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$42.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,422.01

10 shares is a claim on −$306.65 of net worth that earned you −$152.4 and generated −$42.85 of cash last year, against $1,422.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -8%FY23 -12%FY24 -6%FY25 -10%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001604 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001736 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027518 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001604 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001736 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027518 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001604 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001736 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027518 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001604 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001736 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027518 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002165 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001604 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001736 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027518 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001604 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001736 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-027518 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)