MeritValue

TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD

TSEMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTD earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.11 and $20.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.51B1$1.68B2$1.42B3$1.44B3$1.57B3
Net income$150M4$264.6M5$518.5M6$207.9M6$220.5M6
Operating cash flow$421.3M7$529.8M8$676.6M9$448.7M9$395.5M9
Capital expenditure$313.8M10$366.4M11$444.5M12$436.2M12$444.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$107.5M7$163.4M8$232.1M9$12.5M9−$48.9M9
Total debt$314.8M13$544.7M14$231.6M15$180.8M16$161.5M16
Cash & equivalents$210.9M17$340.8M18$260.7M19$271.9M20$235.4M20
Diluted shares109.8M110.8M111.2M112.3M113.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$256.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.41
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.22

10 shares is a claim on $256.99 of net worth that earned you $19.41 and generated −$4.31 of cash last year, against $14.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 13%FY23 22%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 49% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.11 and $20.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.5M
Earnings Power Value
$20.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$220.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.23
Base0.0%$2.23
Bull5.0%$2.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001397 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001537 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002318 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001397 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001537 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002318 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001397 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001537 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002318 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001397 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001537 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002318 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001918 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001397 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001537 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002318 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001918 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001397 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001537 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002318 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)