MeritValue

TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/

TSCOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 359% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.21 and $21.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.7B1$14.2B2$14.6B3$14.9B3$15.5B3
Net income$997.1M4$1.09B5$1.11B6$1.1B6$1.1B6
Operating cash flow$1.14B7$1.36B8$1.33B9$1.42B9$1.64B9
Capital expenditure$628.4M10$773.4M11$753.9M12$784M12$894.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$510.3M7$583.6M8$580.2M9$636.8M9$740.5M9
Total debt$1.14B13$1.31B14$1.88B15$1.98B16$1.91B16
Cash & equivalents$878M17$202.5M18$397.1M19$251.5M20$194.1M20
Diluted shares115.8M560.7M548.7M539.7M532.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$48.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$35.98

10 shares is a claim on $48.5 of net worth that earned you $20.6 and generated $13.91 of cash last year, against $35.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 35%FY23 31%FY24 29%FY25 27%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+359% shares · 5y

Share count is up 359% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 69% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.21 and $21.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.9%
  • fcfBase$636.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.9%
  • fcfBase$636.8M
Earnings Power Value
$21.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.86
Base2.9%$16.21
Bull7.9%$20.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000916365-24-000046 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916365-25-000076 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916365-26-000014 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000916365-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916365-25-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916365-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000916365-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916365-25-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916365-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000916365-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916365-25-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916365-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000916365-23-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916365-24-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916365-25-000076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000916365-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000916365-23-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000916365-24-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000916365-25-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000916365-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)