MeritValue

TIMBERLAND BANCORP INC

TSBKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

TIMBERLAND BANCORP INC earns about 11% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.34 and $81.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55M1$58.5M2$80M3$94.8M3$102.3M3
Net income$27.6M4$23.6M5$27.1M6$24.3M6$29.2M6
Operating cash flow$29.6M7$26.5M8$31M9$23M9$30.2M9
Capital expenditure$895,00010$911,00011$1.11M12$1.31M12$1.74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$28.7M7$25.6M8$29.9M9$21.7M9$28.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$580.2M13$316.8M14$128.7M15$164.7M16$243.4M16
Diluted shares8.4M8.4M8.2M8.1M8.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$330.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $330.22 of net worth that earned you $36.67 and generated $35.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 11%FY23 12%FY24 10%FY25 11%

It earned about 11% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.34 and $81.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$77.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$28.4M
Earnings Power Value
$35.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$81.67
Base0.0%$81.67
Bull5.0%$94.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000357 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000331 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000319 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000357 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000331 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000319 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000357 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000331 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000319 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000357 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000331 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000319 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000939057-22-000366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000357 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000331 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000319 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)