MeritValue

TRX GOLD Corp

TRXdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TRX GOLD Corp earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.16 and $0.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$15.1M1$38.3M2$41.2M3$57.6M3
Net income−$4M4−$2.32M5$2.25M6−$470,0007$687,0007
Operating cash flow−$7.52M8$2.96M9$17.3M10$15.3M11$16.3M11
Capital expenditure$1.03M12$12.7M13$15.9M14$13.3M15$12.8M15
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.55M8−$9.74M9$1.4M10$2.06M11$3.49M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.4M16$8.48M17$7.63M18$8.33M19$7.77M19
Diluted shares254.9M276.1M277.6M280.2M284.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.01 of net worth that earned you $0.02 and generated $0.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 -12%FY22 -4%FY23 15%FY24 11%FY25 15%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.16 and $0.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.06M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.06M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.13
Base5.0%$0.16
Bull10.0%$0.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007345 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006630 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007686 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-21-008308 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007345 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006630 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007686 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007751 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007345 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006630 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007686 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007751 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007345 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006630 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007686 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007751 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007345 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006630 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007686 (CashAndCashEquivalents)