MeritValue

trivago N.V.

TRVGdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

trivago N.V. earns about -32% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €1.01 and €1.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€361.5M1€535M2€485M3€460.8M3€548.9M3
Net income€10.7M4−€127.2M5−€164.5M6−€23.7M6€11.2M6
Operating cash flow€32.5M7€66.3M8€27.8M9€20.3M9€7.73M9
Capital expenditure€3.78M10€3.98M11€3.51M12€2.8M12€4.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)€28.8M7€62.3M8€24.3M9€17.5M9€3.22M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents€256.7M13€248.9M14€102.2M14€134.1M14€131.1M14
Diluted shares367.2M357.6M344.9M349.6M357.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€5.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€0.31
Free cash flow it threw off
€0.09
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €5.96 of net worth that earned you €0.31 and generated €0.09 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -30%FY23 -106%FY24 -35%FY25 10%

It earned about -32% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €1.01 and €1.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€1.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€17.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€1.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€17.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
€0.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €1.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%€1.06
Base0.0%€1.06
Bull5.0%€1.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683825-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683825-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683825-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683825-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683825-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683825-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683825-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683825-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683825-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683825-24-000009 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683825-25-000013 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683825-26-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683825-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683825-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)