MeritValue

TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC.

TRVdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $166.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$34.8B1$36.9B2$41.4B3$46.4B3$48.8B3
Net income$3.66B4$2.84B5$2.99B6$5B6$6.29B6
Operating cash flow$7.27B7$6.47B8$7.71B9$9.07B9$10.6B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$200M10$200M11$200M12$200M13$400M13
Cash & equivalents$761M14$799M15$650M15$699M15$842M15
Diluted shares250.8M239.7M232.2M231.1M227.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,445.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$276.27
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.57

10 shares is a claim on $1,445.25 of net worth that earned you $276.27 last year, against $17.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 15%FY23 14%FY24 19%FY25 20%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 100% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$166.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.66B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$298.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000086312-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000086312-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000086312-26-000065 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000086312-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000086312-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000086312-26-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000086312-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000086312-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000086312-26-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000086312-23-000011 (CommercialPaper)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000086312-24-000012 (CommercialPaper)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000086312-25-000012 (CommercialPaper)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000086312-26-000065 (CommercialPaper)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000086312-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000086312-26-000065 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)