MeritValue

TRUPANION, INC.

TRUPdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRUPANION, INC. earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.32 and $17.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$699M1$905.2M2$1.11B3$1.29B3$1.44B3
Net income—————
Operating cash flow$7.46M4−$8M5$18.6M6$48.3M6$89.5M6
Capital expenditure$12.4M7$17.1M8$18.3M9$9.72M9$14.1M9
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.9M4−$25.1M5$358,0006$38.6M6$75.4M6
Total debt$010$69.5M11$128.9M12$128.9M13$111.8M13
Cash & equivalents$87.4M14$65.6M15$147.5M16$160.3M17$138M17
Diluted shares40.1M40.8M41.4M42.2M43.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$88.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
—
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.66

10 shares is a claim on $88.15 of net worth that generated $17.3 of cash last year, against $25.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 -10%FY23 -9%FY24 1%FY25 9%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.32 and $17.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$38.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$38.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 0 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
$9.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.25
Base5.0%$16.32
Bull10.0%$19.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001371285-24-000029 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001371285-25-000052 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001371285-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001371285-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001371285-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001371285-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001371285-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001371285-25-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001371285-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001371285-23-000047 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001371285-24-000029 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001371285-25-000052 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001371285-26-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001371285-23-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001371285-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001371285-25-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001371285-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)