MeritValue

TransUnion

TRUdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TransUnion earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.1 and $14.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.96B1$3.71B2$3.83B3$4.18B3$4.58B3
Net income$1.39B4$266.3M5−$206.2M6$284.4M6$455.4M6
Operating cash flow$808.3M7$297.2M8$645.4M9$832.5M9$987.6M9
Capital expenditure$224.2M10$298.2M11$310.7M12$315.8M12$326M12
Free cash flow (derived)$584.1M7−$1M8$334.7M9$516.7M9$661.6M9
Total debt$12.7B13$11.3B13$5.43B14$5.22B15$5.3B16
Cash & equivalents$1.84B17$585.3M18$476.2M19$679.5M20$853.6M20
Diluted shares193.0M193.1M193.4M196.7M196.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$225.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$269.62

10 shares is a claim on $225.8 of net worth that earned you $23.16 and generated $33.65 of cash last year, against $269.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 58% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.1 and $14.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$516.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$516.7M
Earnings Power Value
$14.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$284.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.93
Base0.0%$14.93
Bull5.0%$24.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552033-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552033-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552033-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552033-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552033-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552033-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552033-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552033-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552033-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552033-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552033-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552033-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552033-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552033-24-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001552033-25-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001552033-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552033-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001552033-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001552033-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001552033-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)