MeritValue

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.

TRTXdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$138.6M1−$60.1M2−$116.6M3$74.3M3$60.3M3
Operating cash flow$132.2M4$100.5M5$80.1M6$112.1M6$90.4M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$3.72B7$4.18B8$3.05B9$2.57B10$3.31B11
Cash & equivalents$260.6M12$254.1M13$206.4M14$190.2M15$87.6M15
Diluted shares81.7M77.3M77.6M79.9M79.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$134.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.59
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$416.57

10 shares is a claim on $134.43 of net worth that earned you $7.59 last year, against $416.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$7.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$60.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001630472-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001630472-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001630472-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001630472-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001630472-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001630472-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-006015 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001630472-23-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001630472-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001630472-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001630472-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001630472-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001630472-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001630472-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001630472-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)