Triton International Ltd
TRTN-PAdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on fileTriton International Ltd earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.08 and $490.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $143M1 | $147.9M2 | $96M3 | $48.6M3 | $59.5M3 |
| Net income | $530.2M4 | $746.9M5 | $474.1M6 | $518.2M6 | $508.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.41B7 | $1.88B8 | $1.15B9 | $1.11B9 | $972.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.43B10 | $943.1M10 | $208.2M10 | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$2.03B7 | $941.8M8 | $942M9 | — | — |
| Total debt | $8.63B11 | $8.14B12 | $7.52B13 | $7.66B14 | $6.61B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $106.2M16 | $83.2M17 | $57.8M18 | $58.2M19 | $40.3M19 |
| Diluted shares | 67.1M | 62.1M | — | 101.2M | 101.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $255.61 of net worth that earned you $50.26 last year, against $653.29 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.08 and $490.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$941.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$941.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$518.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $68.09 |
| Base | 20.0% | $238.61 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $238.61 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660734-24-000012 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660734-25-000004 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660734-26-000005 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660734-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660734-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660734-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660734-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660734-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660734-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660734-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660734-22-000038 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660734-23-000033 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660734-24-000012 (LongTermDebt)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001660734-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001660734-26-000005 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660734-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660734-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660734-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001660734-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)