MeritValue

TRIMAS CORP

TRSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRIMAS CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.15 and $14.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$857.1M1$883.8M2$652.2M3$630.8M3$645.7M3
Net income$57.3M4$66.2M5$40.4M6$24.3M6$120.1M6
Operating cash flow$134.2M7$72.6M8$88.2M9$63.8M9$117.5M9
Capital expenditure$45.1M10$46M11$54.2M12$51M12$48.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$89.2M7$26.6M8$34M9$12.8M9$69.1M9
Total debt$400M13$400M14$400M15$401.5M16$472.8M17
Cash & equivalents$140.7M18$112.1M19$34.9M20$23.1M21$30M21
Diluted shares43.3M42.5M41.7M40.7M40.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$172.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$115.91

10 shares is a claim on $172.98 of net worth that earned you $29.45 and generated $16.94 of cash last year, against $115.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 4%FY24 -0%FY25 2%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.15 and $14.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$34M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$34M
Earnings Power Value
$14.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$57.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.04
Base0.0%$1.04
Bull5.0%$3.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842633-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842633-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842633-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842633-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842633-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842633-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842633-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842633-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842633-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842633-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842633-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842633-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842633-22-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842633-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842633-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000842633-25-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000842633-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842633-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842633-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000842633-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000842633-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)