MeritValue

PRICE T ROWE GROUP INC

TROWdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PRICE T ROWE GROUP INC earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $91.03 and $98.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.67B1$6.49B2$6.46B3$7.09B3$7.31B3
Net income$3.08B4$1.56B5$1.79B6$2.1B6$2.09B6
Operating cash flow$3.45B7$2.36B8$1.22B9$1.69B9$1.75B9
Capital expenditure$239.1M10$237.6M11$307.9M12$423.4M12$274.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.21B7$2.12B8$911.2M9$1.26B9$1.48B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.52B13$1.76B14$2.07B15$2.65B16$3.38B16
Diluted shares228.8M227.1M224.8M223.3M220.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$492.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$94.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$67.14
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $492.97 of net worth that earned you $94.74 and generated $67.14 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 41%FY22 20%FY23 25%FY24 28%FY25 30%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $91.03 and $98.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$91.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.26B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$97.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.26B
Earnings Power Value
$98.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.09B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$101.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $97.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$97.2
Base0.0%$97.2
Bull5.0%$117.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001113169-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001113169-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001113169-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001113169-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001113169-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001113169-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001113169-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001113169-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001113169-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001113169-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001113169-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)