MeritValue

TRANSCAT INC

TRNSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRANSCAT INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.57 and $114.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$205M1$230.6M2$259.5M3$278.4M3$331.9M3
Net income$11.4M4$10.7M5$13.6M6$14.5M6$5.38M6
Operating cash flow$17.6M7$17M8$32.6M9$39M9$34.9M9
Capital expenditure$10.2M10$9.41M11$13.3M12$13.2M12$15.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.47M7$7.54M8$19.3M9$25.8M9$19.6M9
Total debt$48.5M13$49.1M14$4.16M15$32.7M16$99.9M16
Cash & equivalents$1.4M17$1.53M18$19.6M19$1.52M20$4.94M20
Diluted shares7.6M7.6M8.4M9.3M9.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$320.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$106.49

10 shares is a claim on $320.49 of net worth that earned you $5.73 and generated $20.84 of cash last year, against $106.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 5%FY26 1%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 106% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.57 and $114.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$114.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$19.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$57.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$19.6M
Earnings Power Value
$12.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $57.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.66
Base20.0%$57.84
Bull20.0%$57.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001437749-24-018456 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001437749-25-018483 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001437749-26-018588 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001437749-24-018456 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001437749-25-018483 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001437749-26-018588 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001437749-24-018456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001437749-25-018483 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001437749-26-018588 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001437749-24-018456 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001437749-25-018483 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001437749-26-018588 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001437749-23-016752 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001437749-24-018456 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001437749-25-018483 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001437749-26-018588 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001206774-22-001503 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001437749-24-018456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001437749-25-018483 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001437749-26-018588 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)