MeritValue

TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC

TRNdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.3 and $56.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.52B1$1.98B2$2.98B3$3.08B3$2.16B3
Net income$182M4$60.1M5$106M6$138.4M6$253.1M6
Operating cash flow$611.8M7−$12.8M8$295.6M9$573.8M9$359.7M9
Capital expenditure$23.6M10$38M11$41.3M12$53.8M12$45.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$588.2M7−$50.8M8$254.3M9$520M9$314.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$167.3M13$79.6M14$105.7M15$228.2M16$201.3M16
Diluted shares103.8M84.2M83.4M84.2M82.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$129.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.89
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $129.94 of net worth that earned you $30.53 and generated $37.89 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 -7%FY23 -12%FY24 -5%FY25 32%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.3 and $56.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$314.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$314.1M
Earnings Power Value
$17.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$138.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.56
Base0.0%$56.56
Bull5.0%$69.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000099780-24-000017 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000099780-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000099780-26-000014 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000099780-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000099780-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000099780-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000099780-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000099780-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000099780-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000099780-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000099780-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000099780-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000099780-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000099780-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000099780-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000099780-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)