TORM plc

TRMDdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TORM plc earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.55 and $135.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$619.5M1$1.44B2$1.52B3$1.56B3$1.34B3
Net income−$42.1M4$562.8M5$648.3M6$612.5M6$285.3M6
Operating cash flow$47.9M7$502M8$805M9$826.8M9$498.9M9
Capital expenditure$319.8M10$119.3M11$509.7M12$582.4M12$308.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$271.8M7$382.7M8$295.3M9$244.4M9$190.4M9
Total debt$1.14B13$966.9M14$1.06B15$1.23B15$1B15
Cash & equivalents$144.8M16$320.5M17$265.5M17$271.9M17$158.1M17
Diluted shares81.2M82.3M86.2M97.8M101.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$217.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$98.99

10 shares is a claim on $217.36 of net worth that earned you $28.15 and generated $18.79 of cash last year, against $98.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 28%FY23 29%FY24 22%FY25 12%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.55 and $135.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$135.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$244.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$70.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$244.4M
Earnings Power Value
$57.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$562.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $70.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.12
Base20.0%$70.3
Bull20.0%$70.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655891-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655891-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011954 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655891-24-000014 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655891-25-000013 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011954 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655891-24-000014 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655891-25-000013 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011954 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655891-24-000014 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655891-25-000013 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011954 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655891-24-000014 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655891-25-000013 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011954 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655891-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011954 (CashAndCashEquivalents)