MeritValue

TRIMBLE INC.

TRMBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRIMBLE INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.75 and $19.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.66B1$3.68B2$3.8B3$3.68B3$3.59B3
Net income$492.7M4$449.7M5$311.3M6$1.5B6$424M6
Operating cash flow$750.5M7$391.2M8$597.1M9$531.4M9$386.2M9
Capital expenditure$46.1M10$43.2M11$42M12$33.6M12$25.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$704.4M7$348M8$555.1M9$497.8M9$360.9M9
Total debt$2.59B13$3.04B14$3.6B15$2.78B16$2.78B16
Cash & equivalents$325.7M17$271M18$229.8M19$738.8M20$253.4M20
Diluted shares254.3M250.2M249.1M247.2M241.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$241.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$115.3

10 shares is a claim on $241.66 of net worth that earned you $17.56 and generated $14.94 of cash last year, against $115.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 6%FY23 2%FY25 19%FY26 5%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.75 and $19.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$497.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$497.8M
Earnings Power Value
$19.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$449.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.97
Base0.0%$18.97
Bull5.0%$26.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000864749-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000864749-25-000090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000864749-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000864749-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000864749-25-000090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000864749-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000864749-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000864749-25-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000864749-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000864749-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000864749-25-000090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000864749-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000864749-22-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000864749-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000864749-25-000090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0000864749-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000864749-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000864749-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0000864749-25-000090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0000864749-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)