MeritValue

Trulieve Cannabis Corp.

TRLVdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Trulieve Cannabis Corp. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.61 and $16.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$931.9M1$1.22B2$1.13B3$1.19B3$1.18B3
Net income$17.4M4−$252.7M5−$533.1M6−$160.6M6−$122.2M6
Operating cash flow$12.9M7$23.1M8$201.8M9$271.5M9$272.8M9
Capital expenditure$275.9M10$164.7M11$40.2M12$122.6M12$44.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$263M7−$141.7M8$161.6M9$148.9M9$228.6M9
Total debt$462.9M13$541.7M14$363.2M15$364.8M16$136.7M16
Cash & equivalents$226.6M17$207.2M18$201.4M18$238.8M18$255.5M18
Diluted shares146.8M188.0M189.0M190.0M191.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$59.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.15

10 shares is a claim on $59.74 of net worth that earned you −$6.39 and generated $11.95 of cash last year, against $7.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 2%FY23 -10%FY24 2%FY25 4%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 70% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.61 and $16.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$161.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$161.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.69
Base5.0%$15.61
Bull10.0%$19.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007779 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008421 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001754195-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011917 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006575 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001754195-26-000019 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007779 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008421 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001754195-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007779 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008421 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001754195-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011917 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007779 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008421 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001754195-26-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008421 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001754195-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)