MeritValue

Trillion Energy International Inc.

TRLEFdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Trillion Energy International Inc. earns about -173% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 65% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$2.58M1$3.7M1$9.38M2$16.8M2$7M2
Net income−$3.53M3−$2.05M3−$6.12M4−$43,8424−$9.13M4
Operating cash flow−$1.65M5−$1.88M5$7.03M6−$1.53M6−$5.7M6
Capital expenditure—$180,7397$696,9298$60,1768$15,3098
Free cash flow (derived)—−$2.06M5$6.34M6−$1.59M6−$5.71M6
Total debt$567,1549$649,04710$166,55510$3.46M11$5.36M11
Cash & equivalents$202,71212$1.03M12$926,06113$1.19M13$599,20813
Diluted shares96.8M158.2M383.9M115.3M159.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.57
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.34

10 shares is a claim on $0.89 of net worth that earned you −$0.57 and generated −$0.36 of cash last year, against $0.34 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-173% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 -615%FY22 -33%FY23 -11%FY24 -34%

It earned an average -173% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 5y

Share count is up 65% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 845% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-011754 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010645 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-011754 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010645 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-011754 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010645 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-049170 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010645 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-01-01 · accession 0001493152-23-020239 (Borrowings)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-049170 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010645 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001493152-22-011754 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010645 (CashAndCashEquivalents)